Summary - A new phrase, ‘creeping one-partyism’, has entered our political lexicon recently, and it reflects a growing awareness that ANC hegemony threatens our fledgling democracy. This fear is not without substance as the ANC already tends to view opposition to its policies as a form of disloyalty. But there is another danger, and that is the risk to political stability if the ANC begins to collapse before the opposition parties are strong enough, either singly or in concert, to take over as an alternative government. As the only party with substantial support in all nine provinces, the ANC has counterbalanced centrifugal forces that could tear the country apart. While a precipitous ANC collapse is not imminent, it cannot be excluded in the long run. Of the two dangers, the greater is that of an already powerful ANC that is likely to further increase its power in the upcoming election. Thus a strong case can be made for voting to check this, and the best option is the DA-IFP coalition for change. Another reason for voting for the coalition is that it would signal unhappiness at the thought of Zuma succeeding Mbeki as president while he is suspected of impropriety. The coalition could become the nucleus of an opposition strong enough to assume power if the ANC loses favour with the electorate. We need a viable opposition as insurance against either a sudden ANC collapse or an attempt by the ANC to hang on to power by anti-democratic means.
A new phrase is beginning to be used in political oratory, dialogue and analysis: "creeping one-partyism". Concern over single party dominance is not new to post-apartheid South Africa, as manifest in the proceedings of a conference organised in Arniston by the Afrikaner historian Hermann Giliomee as far back as 1996. But the use of the neologism referred to above signals a new round of awareness of the dangers to South Africa's fledgling democracy of an ANC hegemony that is too extensive and too prolonged.
Fears that the ANC might succumb to the corrupting influence of power in the absence of a credible challenge to its continued governance in the foreseeable future are not without substance. Even now, after being in office for less than 10 years, the ANC tends to see itself as the guarantor of the emancipation from apartheid and opposition parties as a threat to it. Associated with that is the tendency of some ANC leaders to conflate the ruling party with the post-apartheid state and opposition to its policies as a form of disloyalty.
But the peril to democracy posed by an ANC colossus that towers over South Africa needs to be balanced by the risk to political stability if the ANC begins to collapse before the opposition parties are strong enough, singularly or collectively, to take over as an alternative government. It is a situation in which - to invoke the compelling image posited by WB Yeates - the centre may not hold and anarchy may be loosed on the world. As the only party that has been able to garner substantial support in all nine provinces, the ANC has acted as ballast against the centrifugal forces that have the potential to tear South Africa's fledgling democracy apart.
For Focus to observe that as an empirical fact is neither to express a general preference for the ANC above opposition parties nor to counsel voters to cast their ballots for Thabo Mbeki's ruling party in next year's pending election.
The prospect of a precipitous collapse of the ruling party is not imminent. But, judging from events in Africa north of the Limpopo, where ordinary people have become seriously disaffected with governing parties that have ruled too deficiently and too arrogantly for too long, it cannot be excluded in the longer run, either.
Of the two dangers - an ANC that is too strong and an ANC that is too weak - the most pressing threat is an already powerful ANC that is poised to further increase its power in the pending election. The ANC already controls more than two-thirds of the seats in the National Assembly, thanks to its expedient approval of controlled floor crossing. Research by MarkData - that will be published in detail in the next edition of Focus - raises the prospect of the ANC capturing more than 70 per cent of the vote in the pending election.
There is thus a strong argument for voting to check the emergence of an even more powerful ANC. For those who favour that course, the best option in the present situation is the DA-IFP coalition for change, particularly as new signatories could endorse it before the next election. One point is worthy of special emphasis in appraising the coalition: it is a loose electoral alliance, not a merger, so that contracting parties retain their individual identities while agreeing to press collectively for purposeful and vigorous action on a range of urgent issues. These include the crises of unemployment, crime, HIV/Aids and corruption besetting South African today and threatening to negate the gains of the past decade.
The coalition has an appeal beyond the immediate objectives of forestalling further strengthening of the ANC and boosting the still inchoate political tradition of holding the governing party to account. It would indirectly signal unhappiness at the thought of Zuma succeeding Mbeki as president when he, Zuma, is still in the shadow of suspected impropriety and when his financial ineptitude has resulted in him ransoming his future to an aspirant mogul of questionable integrity.
The coalition could be a building block in the construction of an opposition strong enough to take over from the ANC, if it loses its appeal to the majority of voters. There is a clear need for viable opposition as a future reassurance against either the sudden collapse of the ANC from political sclerosis or an attempt by the ANC to hang on to power by anti-democratic means.
