Summary - After its spectacular election victory the ANC is understandably confident. However, it should remember the parable of the parabola. The apex of the parabola is also the beginning of its descent, which suggests that pride in great achievement should be tempered by humility. Nothing is written in stone, and it is possible that the ANC will achieve even greater gains in 2009. Much depends on how it governs over the next five years and, in particular, how successful it is in rolling back poverty and unemployment. The challenges are immense. According to a recent UN study, the percentage of South Africans living below the poverty line since the ANC came to power has decreased from 51.1 per cent to 48.5 per cent. However, the total number of people in this category has increased from 20,2 million to nearly 22 million as a result of population growth. The figures for housing reveal a similar Malthusian ambush: in the past ten years 1,5 million houses were built, but the housing backlog increased from 1,5 million to 3 million. Income inequalities have also worsened, particularly in the African, Indian and coloured communities, which suggests that many South Africans are poorer today than they were in 1994 and that black economic empowerment has disproportionately benefited a small mega-rich black elite with ANC connections. The ANC’s reaction to these data has been either to rubbish the findings or to harass, arrest and even torture political activists who challenge the ANC from the left. If these responses continue, the ANC could well find itself on the downward slope of the parabola, with serious consequences for the country.
After its spectacular victory in the 14 April election the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is understandably infused with confidence to fulfil the tasks it has set itself for the next decade, including, critically, the reduction of unemployment by half and the diminution of poverty by the same proportion. At the moment of its greatest electoral triumph the ANC would be wise to be mindful of the parable of the parabola.
The parable can be stated simply. The apex of the parabola is simultaneously the beginning of its descent, meaning in political terms that joyful pride in superlative achievement should be tempered by sagacious humility, lest it lead to historical nemesis. But the ANC's most recent electoral victory need not mean its electoral course is bound to be that of a parabola. It is theoretically possible that its 2004 victory may be a staging post for further electoral gains in 2009.
Nothing is written in stone. Much depends on the quality of ANC governance in the next five years and how it pursues its quest to "roll back poverty", an objective for which the reduction of the present high unemployment rate is a sine qua non. The ANC's fate is in its own hands, as is that of South Africa for at least another five years. The challenges ahead are immense, as the recently released UN publication, South Africa Human Development Report 2003, makes clear.
ANC governance so far has seen a reduction in the percentage of South Africans living below the poverty line of R354 per adult per month from 51,1 per cent in 1995 to 48,5 per cent in 2002. It has simultaneously seen, however, an increase in the number of South Africans living below the poverty line from 20,2 million to nearly 22 million. The disjunction between the two sets of data is the product of population growth. The ANC's problem is complicated by what might be described as a Malthusian ambush. A similar situation is apparent in housing delivery, another important yardstick of ANC government progress thus far and of the difficulties of meeting its laudable but ambitious objectives. Between 1994 and 2004 official figures show that 1,5 million houses were built, an impressive achievement, as the UN report cited above observes. But during the same period the backlog increased from an estimated 1,5 million houses to 3 million. The situation on the housing front invokes a treadmill image, in which there is much movement but little advance.
Another situation fraught with difficulty relates to the income inequalities inherited from the apartheid past. Using the Gini coefficient - where 1 signifies absolute income inequality and 0 perfect income equality - the UN report states: "Income distribution in South Africa… is very skewed… and has been worsening in recent years". It makes another significant observation. While income distribution has worsened generally in the eight years between 1994 and 2002, it has increased more in the black (African, Indian and coloured) community than in the white. Deconstruction of the data points to two conclusions: first, that many South Africans may be poorer today than they were in 1994 and, second, that black economic empowerment is slanted in favour a small mega-rich black elite with ANC connections, the constant talk about broad black economic empowerment notwithstanding.
The ANC's reaction to these conclusions is disquieting. One response, judging by the written reply of Essop Pahad, minister in the presidency, to the UN report has been to rubbish the findings (though they endorse earlier research by Sampie Terreblanche in his book A History of Inequality in South Africa and by Statistics South Africa). Another, extrapolating from the heavy-handed reaction of the police to leaders of social movements seeking to mobilise the poor in protest demonstrations, has been to harass, arrest and even, according to formally documented statements, torture political activists who challenge the ANC from the Left. While it is myopically arrogant of the ANC to dismiss uncomfortable findings of qualified researchers instead of taking cognisance of them, it is far worse to even begin to replicate the repressive methodologies of the hated ancien regime's security police.
If the ANC government persists with these responses to criticism and its extra-parliamentary political opponents, it risks placing itself on the ineluctably descending trajectory of the parabola, with untold consequences for South Africa as a whole.
