Youth Brief 1 described the structure and objectives of the National Senior Certificate system. This companion brief discusses published National Senior Certificate outcomes.
Statistics on enrolment in Grade 12 and Senior Certificate passes go back to 1970. In that year, there were 46 143 learners in Grade 12 and 42 696 Senior Certificate passes. Figure 1 sets out the ratio of (National) Senior Certificate passes to Grade 12 enrolments and the (National) Senior Certificate pass rate (candidates who passed divided by candidates who completed the examination), from 1970 to 2014.
Sources: South African Statistics, various years
Department of (Basic) Education, Education Statistics, 2000-14
Note: Since 2000, the average gap between NSC passes/Grade 12 enrolments and the pass rate has been just over 5%. This is because some Grade 12 learners do not enrol for the NSC and some of those who do enrol do not complete the examination
Figure 1 shows that the pass rate has not been constant. It was above 90% up to 1976, and then began a long decline, reaching a low of 50% in 1999. Thereafter it rose again and it has been above 70% since 2011.
One reason for the decline was the rapid increase in Grade 12 enrolments. These were below 100 000 up to 1979. By 1993, enrolments stood at just over a half a million, an average growth annual rate of 13.4%, sustained for fourteen years. Quality was bound to take a hit. Between 1993 and 2014, Grade 12 enrolments have fluctuated between 475 000 and 625 000.
The trendless fluctuation in the number of Grade 12 enrolments is the almost static size of the 15-19 age group between 2005 and 2015, though the average rate of growth in the preceding decade was 1.7% per annum[1]. Coupled with that has been a hazardous route from Grade 9 to Grade 12. The promotion, repeat and drop-out rates in 2011-2012 are set out in Table 1.
Table 1 - Promotion, Repeater and Drop-out rates, 2011-2012 |
||||
Grade 9 |
Grade 10 |
Grade 11 |
Grade 12 |
|
Promotion |
79,2% |
69,5% |
67,7% |
|
Repeater |
14,2% |
21,5% |
19,0% |
9,9% |
Drop-out |
6,6% |
9,0% |
13,3% |
This pattern remained roughly constant for the twenty years before 2014, and it has led to rapidly diminishing enrolment in Grades 11 and 12, relative to enrolment in Grade 10[2].
The reason for this high attrition can be found in the results of the Annual National Assessments (ANA) of Grade 9 learners. The 2014 ANA found that 33% of learners were at a level below 40% in their home language and that 90% of learners were at a level of below 30% in mathematics. The cognitive demand of starting to prepare for the National Senior Certificate is just too great for many learners to cope.
It is frustration with this state of affairs which has led to the progression policy described in Youth Brief 1. The idea is that progressed learners should be given special assistance, particularly in Grade 12, so that they can overcome learning deficits, in part in respect of material covered up to Grade 9.
The key features of developments since 2008 have been:
The Department of Basic Education has developed a system which gives learners as many chances as possible for passing the National Senior Certificate. Publication of a full account of passes achieved in every year in the February, June and November examinations would help assessment of the effectiveness of the components of the system. Since the size of the 15-19 age group is now more or less constant in successive years, the quality of regular teaching in schools and additional support outside the regular programme will determine the changes in the number of passes.
Charles Simkins
Head of Research
charles@hsf.org.za
NOTES:
[1] Estimates are based on the 2015 revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects
[2] Education Statistics 2014 estimated the number of learners in Grade 10 at 1 139 872, in Grade 11 at 897 342, and in Grade 12 at 571 819
[3] The published statistical information on the National Senior Certificate is set out in Tables 1, 3 and 4 of the National Youth Technical Report 1. It is subject to the limitations described in National Youth Brief 1.